Signature‐forecasting and early outbreak detection system
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Daily disease monitoring via a public health surveillance system provides valuable information on population risks. Efficient statistical tools for early detection of rapid changes in the disease incidence are a must for modern surveillance. The need for statistical tools for early detection of outbreaks that are not based on historical information is apparent. A system is discussed for monitoring cases of infections with a view to early detection of outbreaks and to forecasting the extent of detected outbreaks. We propose a set of adaptive algorithms for early outbreak detection that does not rely on extensive historical recording. We also include knowledge of infection disease epidemiology into forecasts. To demonstrate this system we use data from the largest water-borne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis, which occurred in Milwaukee in 1993. Historical data are smoothed using a loess-type smoother. Upon receipt of a new datum, the smoothing is updated and estimates are made of the first two derivatives of the smooth curve, and these are used for near-term forecasting. Recent data and the near-term forecasts are used to compute a color-coded warning index, which quantify the level of concern. The algorithms for computing the warning index have been designed to balance Type I errors (false prediction of an epidemic) and Type II errors (failure to correctly predict an epidemic). If the warning index signals a sufficiently high probability of an epidemic, then a forecast of the possible size of the outbreak is made. This longer term forecast is made by fitting a 'signature' curve to the available data. The effectiveness of the forecast depends upon the extent to which the signature curve captures the shape of outbreaks of the infection under consideration.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".