Gains and losses of plant species and phylogenetic diversity for a northern high‐latitude region
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Forecasting potential patterns in species’ distributions and diversity under climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Although high‐latitude regions are expected to experience some of the greatest increases in temperature due to global warming, little is known on how individual responses in species will affect patterns in phylogenetic diversity (PD). Location Alberta, Canada. Methods We used 160,589 occurrence records for 1541 species of seed plants in Alberta (nearly 90% of the province's seed flora) and ensemble niche models to project current and future suitable habitats. We then examined climate change vulnerability of individual species and the potential impacts of climate change on species richness, PD and both taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism (PE). We also assessed whether predicted losses of PD were distributed randomly across the plant tree of life. Results We found that 368 species (24%) may lose on average > 80% of their current suitable climates (habitats), while 539 species (35%) were projected to more than double their current suitable range. Both species richness and PD were predicted to increase in most areas, except for the species‐rich Rocky Mountains, which are predicted to experience future declines. Maps of taxonomic and PE identified several regions with high conservation value and climate change threat suggesting priorities for conservation and climate change adaptation. Overall, a non‐random extinction risk was found for Alberta's flora, demonstrating potential future impacts of climate change on the loss of evolutionary history. Main conclusions Our analyses suggest that climate change will have asymmetrical effects on the distribution of Alberta's plant diversity and endemism and a non‐random extinction risk of the current state of species evolutionary history. Our results provide practical guidance for biodiversity conservation and management in this region by prioritizing species' vulnerabilities and places with higher taxonomic or evolutionary risk due to future climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".