An Approach for Calculating the Cost of Launch Vehicle Reliability
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to determine the cost of increasing launch vehicle reliability during conceptual design. The launch vehicle mission requirements are held constant while various reliability strategies are evaluated for their affects on different performance and cost metrics. Traditional design disciplines, such as trajectory analysis and propulsion are included within the performance analysis while the cost discipline focuses on launch vehicle development and production cost. The reliability modeling is developed specifically for application to launch vehicles. A design environment is created that integrates the performance, cost, and reliability disciplines for use with optimization. The integrated environment is utilized to determine a set of optimal design configurations based on a specific weighting of cost and reliability. Different design options for the Cargo Launch Vehicle from the Exploration System Architecture Study are considered and the final result is a set of configurations optimized for a particular weighting of cost and reliability.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it