Bibliographic record
Abstract
SUMMARY A deterministic model for the spread of an important animal disease, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), is described. It is a sparse three-pool model, the pools corresponding to susceptible, infected and sick animals. Simulations illustrate the biological meaning of the parameters, and pinpoint how parameters affect epidemic characteristics: infectivity impacts on the leading edge of the epidemic and its intensity. The times when infection is introduced and when control is exercised determine the length and possibly the intensity of the epidemic. Finally, the (single) incubation rate influences the trailing edge of the epidemic. It is applied to data describing the recent UK BSE outbreak, with reasonable success. Apart from a scaling factor, only these four quantities were adjusted to achieve this. The contributions from greater modelling complexity are discussed. It is concluded that the simple model is well suited for grasping the essentials, whereas further detail is needed for a more mechanistic representation, in particular concerning incubation delays in developing infectiousness and clinical sickness.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".