Madden‐Julian Oscillation and sea level: Local and remote forcing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the tropical atmosphere on intraseasonal time scales (i.e., weeks to seasons). This study examines the connection between the MJO and global sea level measured by altimeters over the last 17 years. We first identify regions exhibiting a significant (both statistical and practical) relationship between sea level and the MJO. The first region consists of the equatorial Pacific and western coastal zones of North and South America. Consistent with previous studies, we identify wind‐driven equatorially trapped Kelvin waves that propagate eastward along the equatorial Pacific and then transform into coastal trapped waves that propagate poleward along the western coasts of North and South America. The second region includes the shallow waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria (off Australia's north coast) and the adjacent Arafura and Timor seas. Setup by onshore winds is shown to be the dominant physical process. Finally, the northeastern Indian Ocean is shown to be a complex region involving a combination of equatorially trapped Kelvin waves, coastal trapped waves, and westward‐propagating Rossby waves exhibiting characteristics of both local and remote forcing. The implications of the results for deep and coastal ocean forecasting are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".