Impact of a 30% reduction in Atlantic meridional overturning during 2009–2010
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation comprises warm upper waters flowing northward, becoming colder and denser until they form deep water in the Labrador and Nordic Seas that then returns southward through the North and South Atlantic. The ocean heat transport associated with this circulation is 1.3 PW, accounting for 25% of the maximum combined atmosphere–ocean heat transport necessary to balance the Earth's radiation budget. We have been monitoring the circulation at 25° N since 2004. A 30% slowdown in the circulation for 14 months during 2009–2010 reduced northward ocean heat transport across 25° N by 0.4 PW and resulted in colder upper ocean waters north of 25° N and warmer waters south of 25° N. The spatial pattern of upper ocean temperature anomalies helped push the wintertime circulation 2010–2011 into record-low negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) conditions with accompanying severe winter conditions over northwestern Europe. The warmer temperatures south of 25° N contributed to the high intensity hurricane season in summer 2010.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it