A Joint Test of the Rational Expectations‐Permanent Income Hypothesis under Seasonal Cointegration
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study re‐evaluates the validity of the joint rational expectations‐permanent income hypothesis under the framework of seasonal cointegration using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data from Austria, Canada and Taiwan. Evidence is found that the consumption change only depends on the innovations of the income and the unemployment rate changes, and that agents are rational in forming their expectations, i.e., the joint hypothesis is supported by the data used. However, with the same data set, a similar test based on non‐seasonal cointegration tends to reject the joint hypothesis, since the test ignores completely the possible stochastic seasonalities that may contain important information, as has been pointed out by Wallis (1974), embodied in the data.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it