The Application of the Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1 Risk Score for Identifying a Preclinical State of Type 1 Diabetes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: We assessed the utility of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) for identifying individuals who are highly likely to progress to type 1 diabetes (T1D) within 2 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The DPTRS was previously developed from Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) data and was subsequently validated in the TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS). DPTRS components included C-peptide and glucose indexes from oral glucose tolerance testing, along with age and BMI. The cumulative incidence of T1D was determined after DPTRS thresholds were first exceeded and after the first occurrences of glucose abnormalities. RESULTS: The 2-year risks after the 9.00 DPTRS threshold was exceeded were 0.88 and 0.77 in DPT-1 (n = 90) and the TNNHS (n = 69), respectively. In DPT-1, the 2-year risks were much lower after dysglycemia first occurred (0.37; n = 306) and after a 2-h glucose value between 190 and 199 mg/dL was first reached (0.64; n = 59). Among those who developed T1D in DPT-1, the 9.00 threshold was exceeded 0.81 ± 0.53 years prior to the conventional diagnosis. Postchallenge C-peptide levels were substantially higher (P = 0.001 for 30 min; P < 0.001 for other time points) when the 9.00 threshold was first exceeded compared with the levels at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: A DPTRS threshold of 9.00 identifies individuals who are very highly likely to progress to the conventional diagnosis of T1D within 2 years and, thus, are essentially in a preclinical diabetic state. The 9.00 threshold is exceeded well before diagnosis, when stimulated C-peptide levels are substantially higher.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".