A fossil record of colonization and response of lacustrine fish populations to climate change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To study fish species colonization and the response of populations to climate change, we reexamined a well-preserved late Pleistocene to early Holocene fossil fish assemblage from lake deposits on the Missouri Coteau, North Dakota. The fossil fishes in the assemblage include complete specimens of yellow perch (Perca flavescens), brassy minnow (Hybognathus hankinsoni), blacknose shiner (Notropis heterolepis), banded killifish (Fundulus diaphanus), and brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans). The sequence of colonization is explained by individual thermal and relative water velocity tolerances for each species. There are six peaks in fish abundance during approximately 1000 years, indicating a response to environmental perturbations. Charcoal deposition from fires is inferred to represent episodic droughts during which nutrient levels were reduced and fish abundance declined. The fluctuations follow an overall trend of increased fish abundance during a time when lake-marginal vegetation changed from a spruce to a deciduous forest in response to climatic warming. This study provides insight into the complex effects of a changing climate on fish populations and demonstrates the potential of using fossils to examine the long-term abundance patterns of contemporary fish species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".