Patterns of Residual Criminal Careers among a Sample of Adjudicated French-Canadian Males
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study investigates distributions of residual career length (RCL), which refers to the number of years remaining in criminal careers up to the point of termination. Analyses are based on a sample of French-Canadian adjudicated males from the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study and include both self-reports and official records up to age 40. Distributions of RCL are presented according to age, serial conviction number, time since the previous conviction, age of onset, and offence type. Findings show that the number of years remaining in criminal careers declines at a steady pace with age, even among this sample of serious and persistent offenders. RCL also tends to decline with each successive conviction, with increased time lags between the current and previous offences, and with later onset. Furthermore, the accuracy of predictions of RCL based on information available in official records is notable, given the scepticism of past research on this issue. Distributions of self-reported and official RCL were often highly similar, suggesting that official records appear to provide a reasonably accurate picture of criminal careers among high-rate offenders. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".