Pre- and Postpandemic Estimates of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Seroprotection to Inform Surveillance-Based Incidence, by Age, During the 2013–2014 Epidemic in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To understand the epidemic resurgence of influenza due to the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) strain (A[H1N1]pdm09) during the 2013-2014 influenza season, we compared age-related cross-sectional estimates of seroprotection before the pandemic (during 2009) and after the pandemic (during 2010 and 2013) to subsequent surveillance-based, laboratory-confirmed incidence of influenza due to A(H1N1)pdm09 in British Columbia, Canada. Prepandemic seroprotection was negligible except for very old adults (defined as adults aged ≥ 80 years), among whom 80% had seroprotection. Conversely, postpandemic seroprotection followed a U-shaped distribution, with detection in approximately 35%-45% of working-aged adults but in ≥ 70% of very old adults and young children, excluding children aged <5 years in 2013, among whom seroprotection again decreased to <20%. The incidence was 5-fold higher during 2013-2014, compared with 2010-2011, and was highest among children aged <5 years and working-aged adults, reflecting a mirror image of the age-based seroprotection data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".