An Observed Connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Based on the bivariate Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index defined by Wheeler and Hendon and 25 yr (1979–2004) of pentad data, the association between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the MJO on the intraseasonal time scale during the Northern Hemisphere winter season is analyzed. Time-lagged composites and probability analysis of the NAO index for different phases of the MJO reveal a statistically significant two-way connection between the NAO and the tropical convection of the MJO. A significant increase of the NAO amplitude happens about 5–15 days after the MJO-related convection anomaly reaches the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific region. The development of the NAO is associated with a Rossby wave train in the upstream Pacific and North American region. In the Atlantic and African sector, there is an extratropical influence on the tropical intraseasonal variability. Certain phases of the MJO are preceded by the occurrence of strong NAOs. A significant change of upper zonal wind in the tropical Atlantic is caused by a modulated transient westerly momentum flux convergence associated with the NAO.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it