Balloon angioplasty is preferred to surgery for aortic coarctation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: We sought to use techniques of decision analysis to compare values or preferences for balloon angioplasty versus surgery for treatment of aortic coarctation in children. BACKGROUND: Balloon angioplasty and surgery for aortic coarctation have a differing spectrum and prevalence of outcomes and complications, making direct comparison difficult. METHODS: From articles reporting treatment outcomes of native aortic coarctation from 1984 through 2005, we determined the baseline probabilities of successful treatment, complications, recoarctation and aneurysmal formation. Decision trees with baseline probabilities of these outcomes were formulated. Standard gamble interviews of medical professionals determined the preferences for the various outcomes. Final cumulative preference scores were further adjusted for both perceived mortality and procedural disutility. Sensitivity analyses determined threshold probabilities at which the score advantage changed. RESULTS: Final preference scores for balloon angioplasty, with a mean of 0.8999, and standard deviation of 0.0236, were significantly higher than for surgery, at a mean of 0.8873, and standard deviation of 0.0246. The score advantage for balloon angioplasty did not change when adjusted for disutility, or mortality. Sensitivity analysis showed that even if the probability of periprocedural death or major complications for surgery was reduced to none, balloon angioplasty would still be preferred, expect for neonates, where if surgical mortality were reduced below 4%, then surgery would be preferred. Probabilities for periprocedural death or major complications associated with balloon angioplasty would have to exceed plausible thresholds before surgery would be preferred. CONCLUSIONS: After accounting for preference-weighted probabilities of outcomes, balloon angioplasty is preferred over surgery for all plausible situations as the initial treatment for native aortic coarctation in children.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.026 | 0.106 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".