Locational marginal pricing prediction in a competitve electrical market using computational intelligence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Deregulation has created a competitive market among power market participants, and the pricing system plays an important role. Locational marginal pricing (LMP) provides clear market signals that identify the locations where power market participants could make their decisions so as to maximize their profits. In this work, artificial neural networks (ANNs) models are used to predict hourly LMP. ANN is trained using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. PSO aims to minimize the error function by adjusting neural networkpsilas weights and biases using a stochastic optimal search. Wavelet transformed data is fed into neural network as pre-processing stage in order to get a better price pattern that will be reliable for forecasting. The historical LMP and corresponding load demand and temperature are trained, validated and tested over a period of one season. The efficient generalization of proposed model is investigated using early stopping technique. The results were compared with neural models using conventional back-propagation (BP) algorithm and radial basis function (RBF) and yielded encouraging results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".