Modeling the Distribution of Precipitation Forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System Using Kernel Density Estimation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Kernel density estimation is employed to fit smooth probabilistic models to precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system. An intuitive nonparametric technique, kernel density estimation has become a powerful tool widely used in the approximation of probability density functions. The density estimators were constructed using the gamma kernels prescribed by S.-X. Chen, confined as they are to the nonnegative real axis, which constitutes the support of the random variable representing precipitation accumulation. Performance of kernel density estimators for several different smoothing bandwidths is compared with the discrete probabilistic model obtained as the fraction of member forecasts predicting the events, which for this study consisted of threshold exceedances. A propitious choice of the smoothing bandwidth yields smooth forecasts comparable, or sometimes superior, to the discrete probabilistic forecast, depending on the character of the raw ensemble forecasts. At the same time more realistic models of the probability density are achieved, particularly in the tail of the distribution, yielding forecasts that can be optimally calibrated for extreme events.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it