Trade Liberalization and Consumer Prices of Tradable Goods: Evidence from the FTA and Consumer Price Index
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This thesis examines how the Canada - U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) affects prices. I study two potential effects of the FTA: 1) the impact of the FTA on the border cost between Canada and the U.S. and 2) the impact of the FTA on the domestic consumer price of tradable goods in Canada. I make use of disaggregate CPI data for Canada and U.S. to examine the deviations from the law of one price after the FTA and exploit variations in tariff preference across time, characteristics of goods and exposure to trade with the U.S. to analyze the effect of FTA on consumer prices. In my thesis, with respect to the border cost between Canada and the U.S I find that my result shows that border cost still exists following the introduction of the FTA. In terms of the domestic consumer price, my results show that one percentage point increase in the FTA tariff concession decreases the consumer price of tradable goods in the provinces with average exposure to trade with the U.S. by at least 7.19% to at most 11.60%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".