Optimal full matching for survival outcomes: a method that merits more widespread use
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Matching on the propensity score is a commonly used analytic method for estimating the effects of treatments on outcomes. Commonly used propensity score matching methods include nearest neighbor matching and nearest neighbor caliper matching. Rosenbaum (1991) proposed an optimal full matching approach, in which matched strata are formed consisting of either one treated subject and at least one control subject or one control subject and at least one treated subject. Full matching has been used rarely in the applied literature. Furthermore, its performance for use with survival outcomes has not been rigorously evaluated. We propose a method to use full matching to estimate the effect of treatment on the hazard of the occurrence of the outcome. An extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to examine the performance of optimal full matching with survival analysis. Its performance was compared with that of nearest neighbor matching, nearest neighbor caliper matching, and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. Full matching has superior performance compared with that of the two other matching algorithms and had comparable performance with that of inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. We illustrate the application of full matching with survival outcomes to estimate the effect of statin prescribing at hospital discharge on the hazard of post-discharge mortality in a large cohort of patients who were discharged from hospital with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. Optimal full matching merits more widespread adoption in medical and epidemiological research. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it