Lay Theories of Obesity Predict Actual Body Mass
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Obesity is a major public health problem, but despite much research into its causes, scientists have largely neglected to examine laypeople's personal beliefs about it. Such naive beliefs are important because they guide actual goal-directed behaviors. In a series of studies across five countries on three continents, we found that people mainly believed either that obesity is caused by a lack of exercise or that it is caused by a poor diet. Moreover, laypeople who indicted a lack of exercise were more likely to actually be overweight than were those who implicated a poor diet. This effect held even after controlling for several known correlates of body mass index (BMI), thereby explaining previously unexplained variance. We also experimentally demonstrated the mechanism underlying this effect: People who implicated insufficient exercise tended to consume more food than did those who indicted a poor diet. These results suggest that obesity has an important, pervasive, and hitherto overlooked psychological antecedent.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".