An End-to-End Probabilistic Network Calculus with Moment Generating Functions
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Network calculus is a min-plus system theory for performance evaluation of queuing networks. Its elegance steins from intuitive convolution formulas for concatenation of deterministic servers. Recent research dispenses with the worst-case assumptions of network calculus to develop a probabilistic equivalent that benefits from statistical multiplexing. Significant achievements have been made, owing for example to the theory of effective bandwidths; however, the outstanding scalability set up by concatenation of deterministic servers has not been shown. This paper establishes a concise, probabilistic network calculus with moment generating functions. The presented work features closed-form, end-to-end, probabilistic performance bounds that achieve the objective of scaling linearly in the number of servers in series. The consistent application of moment generating functions put forth in this paper utilizes independence beyond the scope of current statistical multiplexing of flows. A relevant additional gain is demonstrated for tandem servers with independent cross-traffic
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it