A (H1N1) pdm09 HA D222 variants associated with severity and mortality in patients during a second wave in Mexico
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Pandemic type A (H1N1) influenza arose in early 2009, probably in Mexico and the United States, and reappeared in North America in September for seven more months. An amino acid substitution in the hemagglutinin (HA), D222G, has been reported in a significant proportion of patients with a severe and fatal outcome. We studied the prevalence of HA222 substitutions in patients in Mexico during the second wave and its association with clinical outcome and pathogenicity in a mouse model. METHODS: The nucleotide sequences of hemagglutinin (HA) from viruses collected from 77 patients were determined including 50 severe and fatal cases and 27 ambulatory cases. Deep sequencing was done on 5 samples from severe or fatal cases in order to determine the quasispecies proportion. Weight loss and mortality due to infection with cultured influenza viruses were analyzed in a mouse model. RESULTS: Viruses from 14 out of 50 hospitalized patients (28%) had a non aspartic acid residue at the HA 222 position (nD222), while all 27 ambulatory patients had D222 (p=0.0014). G222 was detected as sole species or in coexistence with N222 and D222 in 12 patients with severe disease including 8 who died. N222 in coexistence with D222 was detected in 1 patient who died and co-occurrence of A222 and V222, together with D222, was detected in another patient who died. The patients with a nD222 residue had higher mortality (71.4%), compared to the group with only D222 (22.2%, p=0.0008). Four of the 14 viruses from hospitalized patients were cultured and intranasally infected into mice. Two viruses with G222 were lethal while a third virus, with G222, caused only mild illness in mice similar to the fourth virus that contained D222. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm the elevated incidence of HA222 (H1N1)pdm09 variants in severe disease and mortality. Both clinical and mouse infection data support the idea that nD222 mutations contribute to increased severity of disease but additional determinants in disease outcome may be present.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".