Shifting Tax Burdens through Exemptions and Evasion: an Empirical Investigation of Uganda
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates the impacts of tax reforms implemented in Uganda in the mid-1990s on the prevalence of tax evasion and exemptions among firms, and their effects on the distribution and dispersion of tax burdens. Based on firm-level data collected from 243 firms, we observe that evasion and exemptions were widespread and that their prevalence actually increased during tax reforms. We use three-stage least squares to simultaneously estimate tax burdens, evasion and exemption patterns in 1995 and 1997. We find that tax exemptions benefit large businesses to a disproportionate degree, while evasion is more common among small businesses. This creates a situation in which medium-sized firms shoulder a disproportionate tax burden.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it