Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Climate change will drive dramatic changes in the abundance and distribution of species. Assessing the impacts of climate change on our agricultural systems is essential for mitigation planning. Here, I combine projections from the UK Hadley Centre's HadRM03 climate change model for Southern Britain with a general mechanistic model of the interaction between climate, temperate grass physiology and cereal aphid population dynamics. Aphids are one of the largest and most important groups of crop pests and disease vectors worldwide but particularly in temperate regions. The model predicts an increasingly dramatic decline in cereal aphid abundance from the 1961 to 1990 baseline with increasing CO 2 emissions: low emissions=−5%, medium low=−12%, medium high=−61%, and high=−92%. Of the six climate variables used in the model, changes in temperature and rainfall were the most important across all emissions scenarios and, counter‐intuitively, the direct impact of elevated CO 2 actually declines as emissions increase. The results suggest that the pest status of cereal aphids in Southern Britain will significantly decline by the end of this century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".