Potential Impact of a Free Online HIV Treatment Response Prediction System for Reducing Virological Failures and Drug Costs after Antiretroviral Therapy Failure in a Resource-Limited Setting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Antiretroviral drug selection in resource-limited settings is often dictated by strict protocols as part of a public health strategy. The objective of this retrospective study was to examine if the HIV-TRePS online treatment prediction tool could help reduce treatment failure and drug costs in such settings. METHODS: The HIV-TRePS computational models were used to predict the probability of response to therapy for 206 cases of treatment change following failure in India. The models were used to identify alternative locally available 3-drug regimens, which were predicted to be effective. The costs of these regimens were compared to those actually used in the clinic. RESULTS: The models predicted the responses to treatment of the cases with an accuracy of 0.64. The models identified alternative drug regimens that were predicted to result in improved virological response and lower costs than those used in the clinic in 85% of the cases. The average annual cost saving was $364 USD per year (41%). CONCLUSIONS: Computational models that do not require a genotype can predict and potentially avoid treatment failure and may reduce therapy costs. The use of such a system to guide therapeutic decision-making could confer health economic benefits in resource-limited settings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".