Thailand economic monitor : December 2008
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Thai economy remained resilient through the first three quarters of this year, amidst the sharp rise in food and fuel prices. In the first three quarters of the year, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 5.1 percent year-on-year, compared to 4.6 percent in the same period of 2007. This was led by the robust export growth of 25 percent year-on-year in US dollar terms and 9 percent in real terms, not withstanding the continuous appreciation of the baht. Private consumption and investment also grew by more than they did in 2007, despite the sharp increase in food and fuel prices. On the other hand, public consumption and investments in real terms have contracted in the first three quarters as a result of slow disbursement rates amidst political instability and slow project completion as raw material prices rose sharply. Real GDP growth in 2008 is expected to be 3.9 percent as the global economic slowdown and domestic political unrest weigh upon growth in the last quarter. Growth in the last quarter is expected to slow down to less than 1 percent year-on-year as exports of goods are negatively affected by the deceleration in demand of Thailand's major export markets. Exports of services, of which more than half are tourism receipts, have also been severely affected by the political unrest since October. As a result, manufacturing and services growth in the last quarter of this year will slow down considerably. Layoffs and work hour reduction, particularly in the manufacturing sector, have also started to rise, while private investment slows. As job security and income growth uncertainties increase, consumer confidence is falling and household consumption growth has shown clear signs of a deceleration. These trends will extend into next year as the global economy continues to slow.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.110 | 0.075 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".