Unit-Linked Life Insurance Contracts with Lapse Rates Dependent on Economic Factors
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Many recently introduced unit-linked life insurance policies contain provisions allowing policyholders to lapse the product. The problem of pricing this surrender option is difficult as it involves modelling lapse decisions which may be contingent on different factors. This paper develops a methodology which enables us to model lapse behaviour within a framework provided by developments in financial economics. Using marked point processes with stochastic intensities, we present an approach which accounts for changes in the lapse behaviour of policyholders due to different economic factors. As a result, the model produces more accurate financial values for insurance contracts contingent on financial markets. In the context of unit-linked policies, we illustrate the method by allowing the lapse decision to depend on the stochastic volatility of the underlying asset. Our simulation study indicates that there is a strong relation between the single premiums of these policies and the lapse behaviour.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".