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Record W2121236495 · doi:10.1142/s0219477514500138

Entropy-Based Technical Analysis Indicators Selection for International Stock Markets Fluctuations Prediction Using Support Vector Machines

2014· article· en· W2121236495 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueFluctuation and Noise Letters · 2014
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicStock Market Forecasting Methods
Canadian institutionsUniversité du Québec à Montréal
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEconometricsStatisticTechnical analysisComputer scienceStock market indexStock (firearms)Index (typography)EconomicsStock marketFinancial economicsStatisticsMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Most of works on stock price forecasting are concerned with the problem of predicting its future value. However, forecasting stock price future fluctuation trend could be easier and interesting for traders and investors to maximize profits. The purpose of this study is to predict CAC40, FTSE, NASDAQ and S&P500 price index up and down fluctuations. In particular, it aims to propose a methodology to forecast regime switches in these markets time series to assist traders and investors in decision making. In the first stage, a large set composed of twenty five technical analysis indicators is formed. They fall into four broad categories namely oscillators, stochastic measures, indexes and indicators. Entropy statistic is employed to rank the initial technical analysis indicators. Finally, in the third stage, polynomial-based kernel support vector machines (SVM) are used for predicting CAC40, FTSE, NASDAQ and S&P500 future upward and downward fluctuations. The forecasting results show that the choice of technical analysis indicators used to predict CAC40 and NASDAQ fluctuations depend on the type of risk-aversion and risk-appetite of the investor. For the S&P500 and FTSE, technical analysis indicators used in our study can detect future downshifts with high accuracy. Thus, they are suitable for market analysis and trading by risk-averse investors on these markets.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.010
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.577
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.010
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.043
GPT teacher head0.360
Teacher spread0.318 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it