Bayesian Analysis of Radio Observations of the Be X‐Ray Binary LS I +61o303
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The binary star LS I +61°303 is remarkable for its periodic radio outbursts every 26.5 days. We recently discovered a ~4.4 yr periodic modulation of the phase and amplitude of these outbursts using the Gregory-Loredo Bayesian algorithm for detecting periodic signals of unknown shape. In this paper we obtain improved estimates of both the orbital period P 1 and the modulation period P 2 based on a larger data set and examine the behavior of the spectral index between 2.2 and 8.3 GHz versus the modulation period. The new estimates are P 1 = 26.4960 ± 0.0028 and P 2 = 1667 ± 8 days, and our best estimate of the radio phase of periastron is ~0.4. Analysis of the spectral index data indicates that the optical depth in the synchrotron emission region is always ≪1 at 8.3 GHz and can reach values of ~2.7 at 2.2 GHz. A test of the precessing Be star model of Lipunov & Nazin indicates that it is unlikely to be the correct mechanism to explain the 1667 day periodic modulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".