Bayesian Analysis of Radio Observations of the Be X‐Ray Binary LS I +61o303
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The binary star LS I +61°303 is remarkable for its periodic radio outbursts every 26.5 days. We recently discovered a ~4.4 yr periodic modulation of the phase and amplitude of these outbursts using the Gregory-Loredo Bayesian algorithm for detecting periodic signals of unknown shape. In this paper we obtain improved estimates of both the orbital period P1 and the modulation period P2 based on a larger data set and examine the behavior of the spectral index between 2.2 and 8.3 GHz versus the modulation period. The new estimates are P1 = 26.4960 ± 0.0028 and P2 = 1667 ± 8 days, and our best estimate of the radio phase of periastron is ~0.4. Analysis of the spectral index data indicates that the optical depth in the synchrotron emission region is always ≪1 at 8.3 GHz and can reach values of ~2.7 at 2.2 GHz. A test of the precessing Be star model of Lipunov & Nazin indicates that it is unlikely to be the correct mechanism to explain the 1667 day periodic modulation.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".