Impact of Trade on Canada's Employment, Skill and Wage Structure
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Using newly constructed data for 88 C anadian industries (including primary, manufacturing and services), for 15 years (1992–2007), we analyse the impact of trade and technological change on labour demand, skill structure, wage premiums and welfare in C anada. Results show that export growth has no impact, whereas import growth reduces employment growth. But contrary to popular belief, C anada's job loss due to imports has been very small, only about 6,000 persons annually. C hina's negative impacts are more pronounced in industries where the share of information and communication technology ( ICT ) capital is rising fast and among low R & D intensive industries. In terms of skill change, ICT use and real exchange rate appreciation are biased towards high skill workers. Imports from the United States and C hina are skill‐neutral, whereas imports from M exico are skill‐upgrading. Overall, neither export nor import growth has an impact on the wage rate. However, had there been no imports from China, the annual wage growth rate of high skill manufacturing workers would have been 0.6 per cent higher. Between 1992 and 2007, there was an annual net gain from the rise in imports at about 0.4 per cent of GDP , in addition to the gains obtained from 1992 import levels vis‐à‐vis autarky.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it