Performance of case-control rare copy number variation annotation in classification of autism
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: A substantial proportion of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) risk resides in de novo germline and rare inherited genetic variation. In particular, rare copy number variation (CNV) contributes to ASD risk in up to 10% of ASD subjects. Despite the striking degree of genetic heterogeneity, case-control studies have detected specific burden of rare disruptive CNV for neuronal and neurodevelopmental pathways. Here, we used machine learning methods to classify ASD subjects and controls, based on rare CNV data and comprehensive gene annotations. We investigated performance of different methods and estimated the percentage of ASD subjects that could be reliably classified based on presumed etiologic CNV they carry. RESULTS: We analyzed 1,892 Caucasian ASD subjects and 2,342 matched controls. Rare CNVs (frequency 1% or less) were detected using Illumina 1M and 1M-Duo BeadChips. Conditional Inference Forest (CF) typically performed as well as or better than other classification methods. We found a maximum AUC (area under the ROC curve) of 0.533 when considering all ASD subjects with rare genic CNVs, corresponding to 7.9% correctly classified ASD subjects and less than 3% incorrectly classified controls; performance was significantly higher when considering only subjects harboring de novo or pathogenic CNVs. We also found rare losses to be more predictive than gains and that curated neurally-relevant annotations (brain expression, synaptic components and neurodevelopmental phenotypes) outperform Gene Ontology and pathway-based annotations. CONCLUSIONS: CF is an optimal classification approach for case-control rare CNV data and it can be used to prioritize subjects with variants potentially contributing to ASD risk not yet recognized. The neurally-relevant annotations used in this study could be successfully applied to rare CNV case-control data-sets for other neuropsychiatric disorders.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it