Record-breaking avalanches in driven threshold systems
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Record-breaking avalanches generated by the dynamics of several driven nonlinear threshold models are studied. Such systems are characterized by intermittent behavior, where a slow buildup of energy is punctuated by an abrupt release of energy through avalanche events, which usually follow scale-invariant statistics. From the simulations of these systems it is possible to extract sequences of record-breaking avalanches, where each subsequent record-breaking event is larger in magnitude than all previous events. In the present work, several cellular automata are analyzed, among them the sandpile model, the Manna model, the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model, and the forest-fire model to investigate the record-breaking statistics of model avalanches that exhibit temporal and spatial correlations. Several statistical measures of record-breaking events are derived analytically and confirmed through numerical simulations. The statistics of record-breaking avalanches for the four models are compared to those of record-breaking events extracted from the sequences of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. It is found that the statistics of record-breaking avalanches for the above cellular automata exhibit behavior different from that observed for i.i.d. random variables, which in turn can be used to characterize complex spatiotemporal dynamics. The most pronounced deviations are observed in the case of the OFC model with a strong dependence on the conservation parameter of the model. This indicates that avalanches in the OFC model are not independent and exhibit spatiotemporal correlations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it