Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we examine dynamic relationships among wheat prices from five countries for the years 1981–1999. Error correction models and directed acyclic graphs are employed with observational data to sort–out the dynamic causal relationships among prices from major wheat producing regions: Canada, the European Union, Argentina, Australia, and the United States. An ambiguity related to the cyclic or acyclic flow of information between Canada and Australia is uncovered. We condition our analysis on the assumption that information flow is acyclic. The empirical results show that Canada and the U.S. are leaders in the pricing of wheat in these markets. The U.S. has a significant effect on three markets excluding Canada.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it