Intended and unintended effects of restrictions on the sale of cigarillos to youth: evidence from Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Youth consumption of cigarillos (ie, little cigars) has increased markedly in recent years. In July 2010, the Canadian government banned the sale of flavoured cigarillos and required unflavoured cigarillos to be sold in packs of at least 20 units. This paper assesses changes in young persons' use of cigarillos and regular cigars, which are potential substitutes, following the policy. METHODS: To investigate of the change in cigar smoking following the policy, we constructed a segmented regression model that allowed the policy to change the height and the slope of the trend in the outcome variables. The model was estimated using data from the 2007-2011 Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Surveys. RESULTS: We obtained visual and regression-based evidence that use of cigarillos among youth declined following the policy. We also found a small, gradual increase in their use of regular cigars, possibly due to their compensatory switching from cigarillos to regular cigars. Overall, there was a net reduction in cigar use among youth after the intervention. INTERPRETATION: The policy achieved its goal of reducing youth's consumption of cigarillos, but may have an unintended consequence of increasing their use of regular cigars. Policymakers should address the possibility that youth switch to regular cigars in response to restricted access to cigarillos. Possible ways of discouraging this substituting behaviour include extending the ban to cover all flavoured cigars and mandating a minimum pack size for all cigars, or raising taxes on flavoured cigars.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".