An extremes of outcome strategy provides evidence that multiple sclerosis severity is determined by alleles at the <i>HLA-DRB1</i> locus
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common inflammatory disease of the central nervous system unsurpassed for variability in disease outcome. A cohort of sporadic MS cases (n = 163), taken from opposite extremes of the distribution of long-term outcome, was used to determine the role of the HLA-DRB1 locus on MS disease severity. Genotyping sets of benign and malignant MS patients showed that HLA-DRB1*01 was significantly underrepresented in malignant compared with benign cases. This allele appears to attenuate the progressive disability that characterizes MS in the long term. The observation was doubly replicated in (i) Sardinian benign and malignant patients and (ii) a cohort of affected sibling pairs discordant for HLA-DRB1*01. Among the latter, mean disability progression indices were significantly lower in those carrying the HLA-DRB1*01 allele compared with their disease-concordant siblings who did not. The findings were additionally supported by similar transmission distortion of HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes closely related to HLA-DRB1*01. The protective effect of HLA-DRB1*01 in sibling pairs may result from a specific epistatic interaction with the susceptibility allele HLA-DRB1*1501. A high-density (>700) SNP examination of the MHC region in the benign and malignant patients could not identify variants differing significantly between the two groups, suggesting that HLA-DRB1 may itself be the disease-modifying locus. We conclude that HLA-DRB1*01, previously implicated in disease resistance, acts as an independent modifier of disease progression. These results closely link susceptibility to long-term outcome in MS, suggesting that shared quantitative MHC-based mechanisms are common to both, emphasizing the central role of this region in pathogenesis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".