Comparative estimation of effective population sizes and temporal gene flow in two contrasting population systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Estimation of effective population sizes (N(e)) and temporal gene flow (N(e)m, m) has many implications for understanding population structure in evolutionary and conservation biology. However, comparative studies that gauge the relative performance of N(e), N(e)m or m methods are few. Using temporal genetic data from two salmonid fish population systems with disparate population structure, we (i) evaluated the congruence in estimates and precision of long- and short-term N(e), N(e)m and m from six methods; (ii) explored the effects of metapopulation structure on N(e) estimation in one system with spatiotemporally linked subpopulations, using three approaches; and (iii) determined to what degree interpopulation gene flow was asymmetric over time. We found that long-term N(e) estimates exceeded short-term N(e) within populations by 2-10 times; the two were correlated in the system with temporally stable structure (Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar) but not in the highly dynamic system (brown trout, Salmo trutta). Four temporal methods yielded short-term N(e) estimates within populations that were strongly correlated, and these were higher but more variable within salmon populations than within trout populations. In trout populations, however, these short-term N(e) estimates were always lower when assuming gene flow than when assuming no gene flow. Linkage disequilibrium data generally yielded short-term N(e) estimates of the same magnitude as temporal methods in both systems, but the two were uncorrelated. Correlations between long- and short-term geneflow estimates were inconsistent between methods, and their relative size varied up to eightfold within systems. While asymmetries in gene flow were common in both systems (58-63% of population-pair comparisons), they were only temporally stable in direction within certain salmon population pairs, suggesting that gene flow between particular populations is often intermittent and/or variable. Exploratory metapopulation N(e) analyses in trout demonstrated both the importance of spatial scale in estimating N(e) and the role of gene flow in maintaining genetic variability within subpopulations. Collectively, our results illustrate the utility of comparatively applying N(e), N(e)m and m to (i) tease apart processes implicated in population structure, (ii) assess the degree of continuity in patterns of connectivity between population pairs and (iii) gauge the relative performance of different approaches, such as the influence of population subdivision and gene flow on N(e) estimation. They further reiterate the importance of temporal sampling replication in population genetics, the value of interpreting N(e)or m in light of species biology, and the need to address long-standing assumptions of current N(e), N(e)m or m models more explicitly in future research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".