An Aggregated Ant Colony Optimization approach for pricing options
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Estimating the current cost of an option by predicting the underlying asset prices is the most common methodology for pricing options. Pricing options has been a challenging problem for a long time due to unpredictability in market which gives rise to unpredictability in the option prices. Also the time when the options have to be exercised has to be determined to maximize the profits. This paper proposes an algorithm for predicting the time and price when the option can be exercised to gain expected profits. The proposed method is based on Nature inspired algorithm i.e. Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) which is used extensively in combinatorial optimization problems and dynamic applications such as mobile ad-hoc networks where the objective is to find the shortest path. In option pricing, the primary objective is to find the best node in terms of price and time that would bring expected profit to the investor. Ants traverse the solution space (asset price movements) in the market to identify a profitable node. We have designed and implemented an Aggregated ACO algorithm to price options which is distributed and robust. The initial results are encouraging and we are continuing this work further.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it