Heavy Drinking Trajectories Among Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Longitudinal, Group‐Based Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Heavy episodic drinking (HED) is associated with sexual risk behavior and HIV seroconversion among men who have sex with men (MSM), yet few studies have examined heavy drinking typologies in this population. METHODS: We analyzed data from 4,075 HIV-uninfected MSM (aged 16 to 88) participating in EXPLORE, a 48-month behavioral intervention trial, to determine the patterns and predictors of HED trajectories. HED was defined as the number of days in which ≥5 alcohol drinks were consumed in the past 6 months. Longitudinal group-based mixture models were used to identify HED trajectories, and multinomial logistic regression was used to determine correlates of membership in each group. RESULTS: We identified 5 distinct HED trajectories: nonheavy drinkers (31.9%); infrequent heavy drinkers (i.e., <10 heavy drinking days per 6-month period, 54.3%); regular heavy drinkers (30 to 45 heavy drinking days per 6 months, 8.4%); drinkers who increased HED over time (average 33 days in the past 6 months to 77 days at end of follow-up, 3.6%); and very frequent heavy drinkers (>100 days per 6 months, 1.7%). Intervention arm did not predict drinking trajectory patterns. Younger age, self-identifying as white, lower educational attainment, depressive symptoms, and stimulant use were associated with reporting heavier drinking trajectories. Compared to nonheavy drinkers, participants who increased HED more often experienced a history of childhood sexual abuse (CSA). Over the study period, depressive symptomatology increased significantly among very frequent heavy drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic factors, substance use, depression, and CSA were associated with heavier drinking patterns among MSM. Multicomponent interventions to reduce HED should seek to mitigate the adverse impacts of low educational attainment, depression, and early traumatic life events on the initiation, continuation, or escalation of frequent HED among MSM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".