Evaluating Public Health Responses to Reintroduced Smallpox via Dynamic, Socially Structured, and Spatially Distributed Metapopulation Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The risk of smallpox reintroduction has motivated preparations in potential target countries. After reproducing the spatiotemporal pattern after the 1972 importation into Yugoslavia via coupled, biologically realistic systems of ordinary differential equations, we developed dynamic population models with current US age distributions and typical spatially distributed social structures. Surveillance and containment (S&C) coupled with vaccination of 95% of hospital-based health care workers (HCWs) within 2 days after the first diagnosis (estimated to be 18 days after aerosol release) were modeled after simulated exposure of 10, 50, or 10,000 people in various settings. If 90% of patients were isolated within days after symptom onset and 75% of contacts were vaccinated and monitored, S&C would reduce cases by 82%-99%. Preemptive immunization of HCWs, closing of schools, and even vaccination of as many as 80% within 1 week would have small marginal benefits. Preparations should emphasize stockpiling vaccine, training HCWs, improving laboratory capacity, and fostering an understanding of S&C.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".