A Dual Role for Prediction Error in Associative Learning
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Confronted with a rich sensory environment, the brain must learn statistical regularities across sensory domains to construct causal models of the world. Here, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging and dynamic causal modeling (DCM) to furnish neurophysiological evidence that statistical associations are learnt, even when task-irrelevant. Subjects performed an audio-visual target-detection task while being exposed to distractor stimuli. Unknown to them, auditory distractors predicted the presence or absence of subsequent visual distractors. We modeled incidental learning of these associations using a Rescorla-Wagner (RW) model. Activity in primary visual cortex and putamen reflected learning-dependent surprise: these areas responded progressively more to unpredicted, and progressively less to predicted visual stimuli. Critically, this prediction-error response was observed even when the absence of a visual stimulus was surprising. We investigated the underlying mechanism by embedding the RW model into a DCM to show that auditory to visual connectivity changed significantly over time as a function of prediction error. Thus, consistent with predictive coding models of perception, associative learning is mediated by prediction-error dependent changes in connectivity. These results posit a dual role for prediction-error in encoding surprise and driving associative plasticity.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it