The Incentive Effects of Overtime Rules in Professional Hockey
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article analyzes the incentive effects of the National Hockey League's overtime-loss rule by offering an alternative theoretical framework to that of Abrevaya, whose article recently appeared in this journal. Although his theoretical model implied that all teams would find it beneficial to adopt defensive strategies during the late stages of regulation time of a tied game, the model used in this article shows that there are situations where teams will forego such defensive strategies and continue to play offensively aggressive. In particular, the authors show that this decision as to which on-ice strategy to adopt depends crucially on a team's perception of its own on-ice strength, relative to that of its opponent. Using this behavioral model also allows the authors to analyze and compare the incentive effects of a wide range of alternative payoff structures, including the structure currently used in European soccer.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it