Semiparametric mixture of binomial regression with a degenerate component
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract: Many datasets contain a large number of zeros, and cannot be modeled directly using a single distribution. Motivated by rain data from a global climate model, we study a semiparametric mixture of binomial regressions, in which both the component proportions and the success probabilities depend on the predictors nonparametrically. An EM algorithm is proposed to estimate this semiparametric mixture model by maximizing the local likelihood function. We also consider a special case in which the component proportions are constant while the component success probabilities still depend on the predictors nonparametrically. This model is estimated by a one-step backfitting procedure, and the estimates are shown to achieve the optimal convergence rates. The asymptotic properties of the estimates for both models are established. The proposed procedures are applied to rain data from a global climate model and historical rain data from Edmonton, Canada. Simulation studies show that satisfactory estimates are obtained for the proposed models for finite samples. Key words and phrases: climate change, EM algorithm, weather data 1
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.041 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".