A particle filter approach to identification of nonlinear processes under missing observations
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A novel maximum likelihood solution to the problem of identifying parameters of a nonlinear model under missing observations is presented. If the observations are missing, then it is difficult to build a partial likelihood function consisting of only the available observations. Hence, an expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm, which uses the expected value of the complete log‐likelihood function including the missing observations, is developed. The expected value of the complete log‐likelihood (E‐step) in the EM algorithm is approximated using particle filters and smoothers. New expressions for particle filters and smoothers under missing observations are derived. In order to reduce the variance on the smoothed states, a point‐wise (as opposed to path‐based) state estimation procedure is used. The maximization step (M‐step) in the EM algorithm is performed using standard optimization routines. The proposed nonlinear identification approach is illustrated through numerical examples.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it