Climatic conditions during outward migration affect apparent survival of an arctic top predator, the peregrine falcon <i>Falco peregrinus</i>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In long‐lived species, population growth rate is highly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Despite the growing concerns regarding recent climate changes, few studies have investigated the effect of climatic conditions on survival in long‐lived wildlife that are either resident or breed in the Arctic. In this study, we evaluated the effect of climate across the annual life cycle (breeding, outward migration, wintering, and inward migration) on apparent annual survival of arctic‐breeding peregrine falcons. From 1982 to 2008, peregrine falcons breeding near Rankin Inlet, Nunavut, Canada were monitored, in part, to assess apparent annual survival (the product of true survival and site fidelity) using re‐observations of marked individuals. Our study indicated that apparent annual survival of adult peregrine falcons was correlated with indices of climatic conditions during outward migration (i.e., flight from the Arctic breeding grounds). These climatic indices (fall NAO of the current year and fall NAO with a lag of one year) explained 35% of the temporal variation in apparent annual survival of peregrine falcons. Our results suggest that this top‐predator is vulnerable to weather‐related environmental conditions encountered during fall migration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".