Postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy and risk of acute pancreatitis: a prospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Several case reports have suggested that women's use of exogenous sex hormones is associated with acute pancreatitis; however, relevant epidemiologic data are sparse. We examined the association between postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy and risk of acute pancreatitis. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study involving 31,494 postmenopausal women (aged 48-83 yr) from the population-based Swedish Mammography Cohort. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire in 1997 assessing their use of hormone replacement therapy. We linked the cohort to the hospital-based Swedish National Patient Register to determine hospital admissions for acute pancreatitis through 2010. Relative risks (RRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Over a total follow-up of 389,456 person-years, we identified 237 cases of incident acute pancreatitis. The age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were 71 cases among women who had ever used hormone replacement therapy and 52 cases among women who had never used such hormones. Among ever users of hormone replacement therapy, the multivariable-adjusted RR of acute pancreatitis was 1.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.05) compared with never users. The risk did not differ by current or past use, but it seemed to be higher among women who used systemic therapy (RR 1.92, 95% CI 1.38-2.66) and among those with duration of therapy of more than 10 years (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.11-3.17). INTERPRETATION: Use of postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy was associated with increased risk of acute pancreatitis. Physicians should consider this potential increase in risk when prescribing such therapy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".