Dendrochronological reconstruction of spruce budworm outbreaks in northern Maine, USA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using dendrochronological analyses, we reconstructed a 300 year history of eastern spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks in northern interior Maine. By analyzing radial growth patterns from the budworm host, red spruce ( Picea rubens Sarg.), and nonhost, northern white cedar ( Thuja occidentalis L.), we identified five outbreaks beginning ca. 1709, 1762, 1808, 1914, and 1976, all of which have been documented from eastern Canada. However, little or no evidence was found in our study for the 1830s, 1870s, or 1940s outbreaks also documented there. The mean outbreak return interval in our study (67 years) was roughly twice that postulated for eastern Canada. Differences in forest types, and associated stand dynamics, between the regions may explain the longer return intervals, and consequently the absence of these three outbreaks in Maine. Results also indicate that small, slow-growing trees exhibit a budworm signal very similar to that of overstory trees, once tree-ring series have been properly standardized.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".