Economic Integration in Europe: Its Effects on Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
For the past half century, European countries have undertaken a series of measures that have liberalized trade and factor flows among member states of the European Union (EU). They have also harmonized various government policies, including external commercial policy and monetary policy. This increased integration has greatly expanded economic transactions within Europe, possibly at the expense of trade and factor flows with non-member states, including Canada. In this paper, we examine how Europe’s increasing economic integration has affected its trade with Canada. Based on a Canadian export share model that controls for relative price competitiveness and relative income, we find evidence that increased European economic integration has reduced Canada’s relative exports to the EU. This decline can be attributed almost completely to a dramatic fall in the relative importance of Canadian non-energy commodity exports to the United Kingdom. Moreover, when increased Canada-United States trade is accounted for, Canada’s export share to the EU, excluding the United Kingdom, has been stable over the past fifty years while that of the UK has trended down. This shift in UK imports was likely driven primarily by Britain’s co-founding of the European Free Trade Association in 1960 as well as that country’s accession to the European Community (EC) in 1973 which left Canada, and other Commonwealth countries, such as Australia and New Zealand, without their preexisting preferential trade treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.008 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".