Summer heat and an epidemic of cytospora canker of<i>Alnus</i>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An epidemic of cytospora canker [Valsa melanodiscus, anamorph Cytospora umbrina] is associated with dieback and mortality of Alnus incana ssp. tenuifolia in the Southern Rocky Mountains and had begun by the late 1980s. Isolations showed that inoculum was often abundant on bark and bud surfaces even in winter, especially near diseased stems. The pathogen was occasionally isolated from internal tissues of dormant buds and asymptomatic wood and phloem. In infected stems, the pathogen was detected up to 5 cm beyond visible canker margins. The data suggest that the pathogen can cause latent infections, but the infection court remains unclear. Inoculations of healthy stems in the field did not induce canker formation. Fruiting of the anamorph was primarily in late winter and spring, and sexual maturation occurred in late summer and fall. Stem age and growth data support earlier conclusions that the mortality does not represent a steady-state condition with normal attrition of older stems. Canker expansion and killing of branches and stems occurred almost exclusively in the warmest part of summer. We present a hypothesis and supporting evidence suggesting that warm summer temperatures are conducive to the disease. Locally, summer temperatures, and especially maxima, have varied with a dominant oscillation period of approximately 21 years. We speculate that alder populations expand during cool climate phases and shrink during warm phases due to epidemics of cytospora canker. More recently, the oscillation has dampened as an increasing trend of temperature has become dominant, locally and globally. If the trend continues, this already severe epidemic may become more damaging, without intervening opportunities for alder populations to recover.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".