Survival of Atlantic Flyway resident population Canada geese in New Jersey
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Atlantic Flyway Resident Population Canada geese (Branta canadensis) are long‐lived birds that were established during the mid‐1900s. At high densities, resident Canada geese reduce water quality, impair landscape aesthetic, damage crops, and cause safety concerns. Managers need information about survival to more effectively manage these populations via implementation of harvest and cull regulations. We analyzed records for 39,711 Canada geese captured 54,309 times during 1994–2011, of which 5,883 were recovered by the summer of 2012. We used the Burnham model to estimate survival, recapture rate, recovery, and fidelity and identify factors that affect them. Candidate models included combinations of sex, age class, year, hunting season length, bag limit, total harvest, number culled, the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, density, an indicator for urban banded birds, and percent agriculture, natural, rural, and urban land cover at the last known capture location. The best‐supported model included effects of age class, year, and whether the individual was banded in an urban or rural locale on survival and effects of year and locale on Seber recovery rate. We used it to construct a hierarchical model to estimate mean survival and Seber recovery rates for urban and rural birds and their variances. Mean survival of after‐hatch‐year urban Canada geese was 0.724 (95% CI: 0.675–0.772) and that of after‐hatch‐year rural geese was 0.718 (0.665–0.770). Based on estimates of survival and recovery, mean harvest rate was 3.8% (3.4–4.2%) for after‐hatch‐year urban geese and 7.8% (6.7–9.0%) for after‐hatch‐year rural geese. Hatch‐year geese in rural areas had lower survival and higher harvest rates than after‐hatch‐year geese, but the opposite was true in urban areas. Survival generally decreased over the course of the study and harvest increased. Hatch‐year males had the lowest fidelity of any group, and after‐hatch‐year geese of both sexes had fidelity greater than 85%. Knowledge of survival and its relationship with management and environmental factors will allow managers to better predict population responses to harvest and cull and to achieve population goals. © 2014 The Wildlife Society.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".