Prelude to the Third Way: The Unemployment Problem and Earlier Responses
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To provide a historical context for third way reforms, this chapter outlines the developments in key economic and social problems being increasingly confronted by the nine countries after the Golden Age, and how pre-third way governments attempted to respond to these difficulties. Amid all these interconnected problems of economic and social policies, rapidly increasing unemployment was especially relevant for third way reforms. As Figure 4.1 indicates, this is a universal and clear-cut trend across all the nine cases covered in the book. The unemployment problem not only directly shaped strategies of active and passive protection but also required corresponding adjustments in macroeconomic and incomes policies. For the third way ideology, unemployment posed one especially serious threat, in labor market and social exclusion due to long-term unemployment. The exclusion of the worst-off contradicts the principles of both solidarity and prioritarianism (protecting the weakest). Unfortunately, historical data are relatively scarce for long-term unemployment, only sufficient for a decade span of nine-country comparison. To better discern the pattern of long-term unemployment, I have graphed the nine countries in two separate groups. In the low group (Figure 4.2), the share of unemployment one year or longer out of total unemployment ranges from 14% to 29%. In the high group (Figure 4.3), it ranges from 40% to 50%. Clearly, for the high group, long-term unemployment remained about as high at the end as the beginning. For the low group, it increased consistently through time, drawing these countries closer to the high group. In short, persistent labor market exclusion became a problem common to all countries by the eve of third way reforms.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.011 | 0.021 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".