Model-Based Learning Using a Mixture of Mixtures of Gaussian and Uniform Distributions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We introduce a mixture model whereby each mixture component is itself a mixture of a multivariate Gaussian distribution and a multivariate uniform distribution. Although this model could be used for model-based clustering (model-based unsupervised learning) or model-based classification (model-based semi-supervised learning), we focus on the more general model-based classification framework. In this setting, we fit our mixture models to data where some of the observations have known group memberships and the goal is to predict the memberships of observations with unknown labels. We also present a density estimation example. A generalized expectation-maximization algorithm is used to estimate the parameters and thereby give classifications in this mixture of mixtures model. To simplify the model and the associated parameter estimation, we suggest holding some parameters fixed-this leads to the introduction of more parsimonious models. A simulation study is performed to illustrate how the model allows for bursts of probability and locally higher tails. Two further simulation studies illustrate how the model performs on data simulated from multivariate Gaussian distributions and on data from multivariate t-distributions. This novel approach is also applied to real data and the performance of our approach under the various restrictions is discussed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it