SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORAGE AND CATTLE PRODUCTION IN SASKATCHEWAN
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Multiple global climate models suggest that the Canadian Prairies will experience temperature increases due to climate warming.This could influence pasture and grazing production.Three climate scenarios CGCM2 A21, CSIROMk2 B11 and HadCM3 A21 were used to predict daily weather data to 2099 and incorporated into the GrassGro decision support tool to project pastoral production during 30-year increments, 2010 to 2099.Simulations were compared with the World Meterological Organization baseline years, 1961-1990 at two sites (Saskatoon and Melfort) and two soil textures (loam topsoil / loam subsoil and sandy-loam / sandyclay-loam).Two tame grasses [crested wheatgrass (CWG; Agropyron cristatum) and hybrid bromegrass (HBG; Bromus inermis x Bromus riparius) and a mixed native pasture (Festuca hallii; Elymus lanceolatus; Pascopyrum smithii; Nassella viridula) were studied at each location.Soil moisture was greater for loam/loam than sandy-loam/sandy-clay-loam resulting in more plant available moisture in all climate scenarios at both locations.However, plant available moisture alone was unable to explain changes in pasture dry matter (DM) production.The results projected from CGCM2 A21 were more favorable to plant and livestock production than those of CSIROMk2 B11 and HadCM3 A21.CGCM2 A21 simulated increases in mean DM production of HBG at both locations during spring each 30-yr period (P<0.05)but an overall decline (P<0.05) in mean average daily gain (ADG) of steers at Melfort, whereas at Saskatoon there was an increase in ADG (P<0.05).CWG decreased in DM iii production at Melfort during summer and increased at Saskatoon with CGCM2 A21 but there was an overall decrease in ADG of steers during each 30-yr period relative to baseline.It was concluded that HBG was better able to stabilize production under various future climatic conditions than CWG.There was a shift in species dominance from Festuca hallii to Elymus lanceolatus in the mixed native pasture at both locations associated with the increase in summer temperatures.This suggests that various grass species may respond differently to climate change.These results indicate that climate change will cause significant changes in soil moisture, productivity and quality of tame pastures, liveweight of grazing cattle and species composition of native pasture.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".